EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Pressure Persists

Traders watching the EUR/USD forecast will note that the pair currently hovers around 1.1563. This level acts as a momentum pivot, capturing the tug-of-war between cautious buyers and dominant sellers pressured by global economic data. The broader EUR/USD forecast outlook is characterised by a series of lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend firmly in place.

Central banks and inflation concerns remain a key driver behind this bearish EUR/USD forecast. The European Central Bank’s cautious stance amid slowing growth and energy price volatility contrasts with robust US economic data, encouraging capital flows into the US dollar and away from the euro. As a result, the EUR/USD forecast emphasizes a continued preference for the dollar in this macroeconomic landscape.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD forecast analysis draws attention to the interaction between price and critical moving averages. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have recently converged, providing resistance that has proven difficult for the Euro Dollar to breach. This technical ceiling is supported by the relative strength index (RSI), which remains below the 50 mark, signaling bearish momentum and a lack of buying conviction.

Looking ahead, the EUR/USD forecast highlights the key resistance zone between 1.1575 and 1.1585, which has acted as a formidable barrier over the past 24 hours. Attempts to break through this level have been met with renewed selling pressure, suggesting that traders view rallies in this range as opportunities to short the market. If the EUR/USD price fails to overcome this zone, the forecast anticipates a retest of lower supports at 1.1365 and potentially as low as 1.1145 in a worst-case scenario.

However, the EUR/USD forecast also stresses the importance of remaining alert to unexpected shifts. A decisive break above 1.1685 would invalidate much of the bearish thesis and open the door to a more constructive phase for the Euro Dollar. Such a shift could be triggered by surprising strength in European economic indicators or dovish signals from the US Federal Reserve, prompting traders to adjust their positioning quickly.

Fundamental events on the horizon add an extra layer of complexity. The EUR/USD forecast is particularly sensitive to upcoming US inflation data and European industrial production figures scheduled for release this week. Both sets of data carry the potential to sway market sentiment and alter the current technical formations.

Traders engaged with the EUR/USD forecast must also consider geopolitical risks. Ongoing uncertainties related to energy supplies and fiscal pressures in the Eurozone could exacerbate volatility, further influencing the Euro Dollar’s trajectory.

In summary, the EUR/USD forecast for August 5, 2025, reveals a market dominated by bearish forces, where resistance levels are efficiently defending against Euro upside, and the US dollar remains broadly favoured. The technical analysis aligns with a cautious fundamental outlook, reinforcing the case for traders to stay short on rallies while managing risk tightly.

As volatility persists, this EUR/USD forecast serves as a vital guide for market participants aiming to navigate choppy waters, stay aligned with broader themes, and execute strategies with discipline. It remains to be seen whether buyers can muster enough strength to challenge resistance zones, but for now, the bearish EUR/USD forecast is firmly in control.